Global economic news, international trade, emerging markets, economic forecasts, and analysis of worldwide economic trends and developments.
The OECD warns that the US-Iran conflict is deepening its impact on the global economy, with slowing growth and accelerating inflation. Inflation is set to rise across rich and poor nations, with the eurozone already above target. A prolonged conflict could cut global GDP growth to 2.1% in 2026.
This commentary argues that China's state-subsidized, export-driven economic model is destabilizing the global economy by flooding markets with cheap exports, causing job losses in other countries. It contends that Chinese policies suppress wages and currency value, harming both foreign industries and China's own economy by over-investing in unprofitable factories.
This commentary argues that standard metrics underestimate China's global economic influence, particularly its physical investment relative to the US. The authors contend that using investment purchasing power parity reveals a larger contribution to global growth and stronger spillover effects than commonly recognized.
Mohamed El-Erian argues that the decades-old 'policy put'—the expectation that central banks and governments will rescue markets during downturns—is disappearing due to high inflation, elevated interest rates, and soaring debt. He warns this shift has implications for both financial markets and the real economy, as policymakers lose capacity to respond to crises.