Prediction markets news covering betting markets, forecasting platforms, event contracts, and prediction market analysis.
Federal authorities are investigating former Rep. George Santos for alleged insider trading on the prediction market Kalshi, involving bets on his own attendance at President Trump's 2025 State of the Union address. Santos was expelled from the House in December 2023 and is permanently barred from the floor.
Xavier Becerra's probability of winning California's governor race jumped to 79.3% on Polymarket, up 29% from Tuesday. Billionaire Tom Steyer trailed at 13.1%, while Republican Steve Hilton fell to 5.8% after leading initial returns. The prediction market saw over $33 million in trading volume.
Polymarket has severed ties with former U.S. Representative George Santos. Regulators are also probing trades on a rival prediction market involving Santos.
This commentary argues that prediction markets like Kalshi are primarily used for betting rather than hedging, despite claims to the contrary. It contends that the hedging narrative is a rhetorical tool to gain regulatory approval and attract users, using a contrived example of a bar hedging a promotion to illustrate the disconnect.
This commentary argues that President Trump's support for federal regulation of prediction markets is influenced by his family's financial ties to platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. It contends that the Trump administration's push to place these markets under CFTC oversight conflicts with traditional state-level gambling regulation, highlighting a power struggle driven by personal interests.