Recent news and analysis on US Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve policy decisions, interest rate changes, FOMC meetings, monetary policy analysis, and impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets.

• Fed's Warsh cites global economic resilience at IMF

  Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated the global economy has shown unexpected resilience against strong shocks during IMF meetings in Bangkok. He noted that world economies broadly conformed to expectations despite surging inflation and bond yields linked to the Iran war, adding there are no free riders among central banks undertaking synchronous monetary tightening. Warsh also highlighted an AI-driven investment surge creating near-term demand shocks.

• Stock futures rise Friday after Fed Chair Warsh IMF comments

  Stock futures rose on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh provided limited commentary on inflation at an IMF meeting. Real estate stocks surged as odds of a rate hike decreased, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of a 25-basis-point increase fell to 15.5% from 17.7% a week ago.

• Fed's Warsh calls AI a positive supply shock with bumpy transition

  Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh described artificial intelligence as a potential positive supply shock that could boost productivity and wealth. He cautioned that the economic transition driven by AI adoption will be very bumpy in the short term and avoided signaling interest rate decisions for October.

• "Fed interest-rate decision this month is a closer call than markets think"

  MarketWatch suggests that the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is more uncertain than markets imply. The commentary argues that fresh inflation data indicates officials are not predetermined to hold rates steady, with some economists seeing a viable chance for a rate hike.

• "The Fed Will Have to Raise Interest Rates More, Even If It Pauses in October"

  Barron's asserts that despite a likely Federal Reserve pause in October, further interest rate hikes are necessary to combat persistent inflation. The commentary suggests that market expectations of stability are misplaced and that policymakers must continue tightening monetary policy, potentially as soon as December.

• South Korea, US hold first finance-monetary policy meeting

  South Korea and the United States conducted their inaugural two-plus-two meeting of senior finance and monetary officials in Bangkok on Friday. Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il and Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song met with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and Deputy Treasury Secretary Francis Brooke to strengthen bilateral economic coordination.

• Gold falls ahead of Fed Chair Warsh remarks

  Gold prices steadied near $4,160 an ounce following a stock market selloff driven by concerns over the artificial intelligence investment boom. A global bond rally pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower, supporting the non-yielding metal, while the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.5% as investors shifted assets toward fixed income.

• "How meeting 6 times a year instead of 8 could arm the Fed with more data"

  Yahoo argues that the Federal Reserve should reduce its meeting frequency to six times a year to ensure policymakers have access to complete inflation data, such as the PCE index, before making interest rate decisions. The piece cites Deutsche Bank economist Matt Luzzetti and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to support the claim that the current calendar creates informational gaps.

• Fed Chair Warsh broadens focus beyond monetary policy

  Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced plans to expand his leadership scope over the next 100 days, prioritizing supervision, regulation, and payments processing. Speaking in Bangkok, Warsh stated he intends to give equal attention to these areas, attributing his previous emphasis on interest rates to current economic exigencies.

• "The Radical Plan That Could Torch Your Portfolio"

  The commentary argues that recent U.S. inflation data has reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, leading to rising bond prices and gains in dividend-paying stocks. It suggests that market participants are adjusting their portfolios away from aggressive monetary tightening bets amid shifting economic indicators.