Recent news and analysis on US Treasury & Bonds

Bond market news covering Treasury yields, government bonds, debt issuance, and fixed income market developments.

• KBRA assigns AAA rating to Harris County bonds

  KBRA assigned a AAA long-term rating to Harris County, TX, limited and unlimited tax bonds, including Series 2026A and 2026B, and affirmed AAA ratings on outstanding obligations with a Stable Outlook. The rating reflects the county's sizable economy, strong financial profile, and robust management practices.

• "Bond yields are sending a new signal about Fed rate hikes"

  This commentary argues that recent movements in Treasury bond yields, particularly the pullback in the 2-year yield, signal a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. It suggests that cooler inflation data may prevent further rate increases, contrasting with previous concerns about tightening.

• "How Sky-high Deficits Threaten the Bond Market"

  This commentary argues that high US government deficits pose a threat to the bond market, as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to bail out the Treasury except in extreme crises. It contends that the Fed's reluctance to intervene could lead to market instability.

• US Treasury yields fall sharply in European trade

  The two-year yield dropped 3.2 basis points to 4.122% and the 10-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.528%. The dollar held steady as safe-haven demand offset reduced Fed tightening expectations, while Brent crude rose 1.8% to $85.77.

• UBS fund manager plans to short Treasuries on strong US economy

  UBS Asset Management's Kevin Zhao plans to short Treasuries, betting that the robust US economy will reduce the haven appeal of US government debt. Zhao stated he wants to 'sell into rallies.' The US economy is outperforming Europe, benefiting from AI investment and not being impacted by the energy shock.

• Bond traders unwind Fed rate hike bets after benign inflation data

  Treasury yields fell for the week as inflation data showed deceleration, leading traders to abandon bets on a July Federal Reserve rate hike. Short-maturity yields led the decline, though oil price gains limited the move and preserved some wagers on a rate hike by year-end.

• "Bonds Have a Big Tech Problem of Their Own"

  This commentary argues that concentration risk, typically associated with tech stocks, is now becoming a concern in bond markets. It suggests that investors should be aware of this emerging risk in fixed income.

• Longtime Treasury bull Hoisington turns bearish on US debt

  Hoisington Investment Management, bullish on US Treasuries for over 30 years, has turned bearish. The firm cites larger fiscal deficits and higher capital demands in its latest quarterly report, signed by founder Van R. Hoisington and chief economist Lacy Hunt.

• Treasury yields rise on strong jobless claims, Philly Fed data

  U.S. Treasury yields rose Thursday as initial jobless claims fell to 208,000 and the Philadelphia Fed business activity gauge surged to 41.4. The 10-year yield increased to 4.596% and the two-year to 4.179%, reversing Wednesday's decline from softer inflation data.